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Partial translation of long Chinese article regarding the recent actions of PBOC
https://www.sosobtc.com/article/24259.html The following is a rough/partial translation of the article "Reflections on the present situation of Bitcoin and thoughts on its future" provided in the link above Two hurricanes swept through the landscape as the summer season trails off, instead of uprooting trees and destroying houses, it ravaged through the Bitcoin markets. In early September, Chinese authorities made an announcement banning Initial Coin Offerings (ICO), this was shortly followed by a second official statement regarding the closures of Chinese cryptocurrencies exchanges. These two statements triggered a flurry of selling off and caused a massive upheaval in cryotocurrency markets. This author had anticipated these actions from PBOC, and was perhaps, even an unwitting instigator (in the most minor sense possible) for the current turn of events. A few days back, this author had suggested that PBOC should just shut down Bitcoin mines and exchanges in China, thus allowing an easy way out for the central bank to abscond itself of any “supervisory responsibility” over this burgeoning industry. This would also ensure that Bitcoin markets would open to develop organically in a democratic, autonomous manner, free from constant irrational interference of the Central Bank. Nevertheless this author still found it surprising that the typically indecisive PBOC would take such a drastic action within such a short time. In the author’s opinion, there are three main factors, and three minor factors that lead to this latest decision by PBOC. Here are the 3 main reasons: 1) The increasingly unwieldy size of the Bitcoin market First, let’s keep a few figures in mind. 1) In 2015, based on the limited amount of information available to the public; China UnionPay the crown jewel of PBOC disclosed a profit of 3.8 billion CNY, and held 66.5 billion CNY worth of assets. 2) 220 billion CNY; stamp duty revenue generated from securities issued by CSRC. Now, consider the size of the Bitcoin industry in China. China holds approximately two thirds of Bitcoin currently in circulation, ~10 million Bitcoins. Before the most recent market upheaval, Bitcoin’s value was holding steady at around 30000 CNY (4500 USD), hence according to this approximation, Bitcoin holders in China is controlling 300 billion CNY worth of a highly liquid, easily transacted wealth that is not subjected to regulations and jurisdiction by the Central Bank and Ministry’s of Finance. In a space of a few short years, the amount of wealth held by Chinese citizens in Bitcoin has now swelled to a very significant amount that’s on the scale of annual military spending of nations such as India and Russia (55.9 billion and 69.2 billion USD respectively, estimated Bitcoin holding in China 45 billion USD (when price was at 4500 usd) Now that the days of exponential Chinese economic growth driven by its manufacturing industry is over, various ministries are trying all sorts of different methods to promote economic growth. However, for all their efforts to promote and cultivate a new multibillion industry, their achievements pale in comparison to the Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies industry which had slipped right under their noses and is now thriving. It is easy to conjecture that the success of this new, non-government sanctioned industry is a slap in the face for archaic and control hungry Chinese party officials. Following the runaway success of Tencent and Alibaba, two recent multibillion companies which the Chinese State failed to put their finger in, Chinese officials are now determined to nip the Bitcoin industry in its bud before it blossoms into another non-state sanction success. This vindictive and petty type of thinking is rather typical, and to be expected of the current administration. 2）Disruption of the societal hierarchy The social hierarchy of China is still largely determined by state-owned monopolies. The distribution of public wealth and resources like real estate, mining rights, and business permits etc. are dictated by those wielding power in state enterprises. The immense wealth generated by these essentially risk free businesses is only accessible to relatives of high-ranking officials and fellow insiders, i.e an oligarchy. However the wealth generated from the Bitcoin industry which was essentially started by a bunch of tech enthusiasts with some old computers, a few lot of GPUs, and self taught mathematical models. This completely circumvents the typical route to wealth and riches as dictated by the state, and is a threat to the way they constructed the society to be. Hence, the Bitcoin industry must be stopped and to be made an example of. Business owners in cahoots with state officials also resents the Bitcoin industry greatly, like how they resisted e-payment systems like Alipay, WechatPay, or e-communities such as qq and Wechat initially. These business owners are essentially power brokers, where their greatest asset lies in their ability to act as an intermediary between private enterprises and the State, if new businesses no longer require the blessing of the state to prosper, then as the unofficial toll collectors would surely be starved. 3）The inequality of wealth distribution arising from the Bitcoin industry The frontrunners and greatest benefactors of the Chinese Bitcoin industry had been young tech enthusiasts. Typically young males in their late 20s, and as the price of Bitcoin boomed, they became a very conspicuous bunch of newly rich. These quickly drew the ire of the Chinese community, “your dad isn’t some powerful Chinese tycoon or government official, what did you do to deserve to get rich so quickly!” was the unspoken sentiment of the public. As more and more stories about the overnight success of Bitcoin mining/trading enterprises received inceased media coverage across 2016, the Chinese were driven into frenzy on this new source of wealth. One portion of the public started to throw their hats into the ring, by exploiting the fact that the public by large only possess a half-baked understanding of cryptocurrencies. These newcomers posed themselves as some sort of Bitcoin sage, and immediately started advocating all sorts of altcoins and cryptocurrencies to enrich themselves. Another portion of the public started to horde towards these so called bitcoin sages entrusting them with their hard earned money so that they can be a part of this exciting new industry. The fact that they lost money has nothing to do with the Bitcoin industry, but is solely due to the fact that they did not educate themselves properly and allowed themselves to be taken advantage of by some unscrupulous individuals. But the largest portion the public became increasingly envious of the success achieved by the frontrunners in the Bitcoin industry, feeling that it’s too late to join the bandwagon, and angry that all these newfound wealth had completely eluded them, they began to sound their frustration, demanding the closure and banning of the new arcane industry that they had missed out on. In recent years, financial crisis in China had always originated from State-controlled markets such as the stock exchange, Forex or the real estate industry. As the Chinese people grew increasingly distrustful of these State-controlled industries, the self-regulated Bitcoin industry emerged as shining beacon of success. The relevant authorities took note of the public dissatisfaction with Bitcoin and decided to go with the flow, assuaging public outrage while at the same time, diverting attention away from their own failures in issues such as the unaffordable real estate prices that's currently paralyzing the young Chinese community. The aforementioned three factors are deep rooted, and would always be a core reason for the Chinese government to stamp out Bitcoin. Here are three more minor reasons, which are more circumstantial and technical in nature: 1）The contentious hard fork leading to discord among the Bitcoin community Ever since Bitcoin splitted into Bitcoin Core and BitcoinCash, the community has grew increasingly partisan. This animosity between the two factions had damaged Bitcoin, and some people had decided to exploit this divide. The statement from James Dimon about Bitcoin being a scam was quickly picked up by Chinese officials to clamp down on Bitcoin. The credibility of his statement is dubious, seeing that JP Morgan was just as complicit as Lehman Brother’s was during the 2008 financial crisis, and really should not be calling out other people for being a scam. However, Chinese officials quickly took his words as gospel, after all enemy of an enemy is a friend. This crackdown essentially kills of the new Bitcoin blockchain advocated by the Chinese Bitcoin community (i.e Bitcoin Cash), so in a sense the state officials are modern traitors, by siding with foreigners and their view of Bitcoin. 2）Bitcoin market is still too naïve and immature Even before the Bitcoin hardfork was concluded, exchanges started listing tokens representing BitCoin Cash for trading. This action in particular hastens the decision by Chinese authorities to clampdown on Bitcoin. This decision is simply reckless and irrational, as it lies in complete betrayal of what Bitcoin stands for. Bitcoin is the time tested, gold standard among cryptocurrencies because every single bitcoin is forged by miners, this is what that makes Bitcoin secure and distinguishes it from the many other altcoins that currently exisits. Bitcoin is more than just a currency; it has solid proof of work backing it up. By simply listing BCC tokens before they are mined. What the exchanges are doing is no different from the central bank issuing fiat currencies, and by stepping into the domain of the central bank, Bitcoin exchanges now have painted a huge bulls eye on its back 3）Too much speculators, opportunists joining the fray In the few weeks prior to this crackdown, i.e when Bitcoin was at its all time high. Figures in the financial world that used to jeer at Bitcoin started to change their tune. They popped out like mushrooms after rain, claiming that they too want to join this exciting new industry, be it as a miner, a day trader or to start blockchain companies. In hindsight, these are clear indicators that the Bitcoin market is overheated and is due for a correction. Three years ago, when Bitcoin was worth around 1000 CNY, it was clearly a good, underpriced product with a clear utility and huge potential for future growth, but not a lot of people were buying it. However, now that the price had climbed all the way to 30000 CNY, people are rushing to get more of it. There was clearly a bubble, and that’s why this author started exhorting for PBOC to crackdown on Bitcoin and pop the bubble.
Pre-ICO: Stockus: Fantasy Trading Blockchain Platform Stockus Crypto Summary Hi everybody! I’m happy to introduce the Stockus Project to you. It is a new and exciting project on which our team is working on now. The main ideas and its realization are explained further. It will be nice if they are interesting for you. Stockus. Fantasy trading platform based on the blockchain technology. Our goal is to create a leading financial simulator based on open ledger technology in order to provide participants with a reliable, transparent trading platform and opportunities to earn large cash prizes. Stockus – is a fantasy trading platform based on smart contracts. Participants place trades individually or in teams. The application allows users to enrol in various tournaments and earn cash rewards without an initial investment of capital. Gaming Capital Globally The online gaming industry is rapidly growing, with figures indicating total earnings of 99.6billion USD in 2016 alone. This is an impressive amount; however it pales in comparison to the size of the financial markets. The daily turnover of the Forex market amounted to 5.1trillion USD in 2016. Approximately 10-15 million individual market participants actively trade on Forex worldwide with the total volume generated by retail traders being equal to 293billion USD daily. Statistics show that the average starting capital of a retail trader is somewhere in the region of 700 USD. Within 4 months of trading 97% of all retail traders lose their initial investment and leave the market. The amounts that such traders lose on the currency market amount to tens of millions of dollars annually. $10 against $700 Our approach differs substantially from the business model of the classic broker. There are two fundamental pillars on which Stockus was built. The first one is that exchange trading for the retail participant is comparable to a game, where players place bets on the direction of the market. And the second one is the players prefer to pay small-one off buy-ins for the chance to win large cash prizes in tournaments as apposed to putting large deposits at risk on leveraged trading accounts. There is clearly a drastic difference between a trader who suffers the loss of their entire deposit of $700 whilst trading on Forex, and a player who buys into a trading tournament for $10 with the chance of winning a massive prize. That same $10 deposit would get the trader nowhere on the Forex market, whereas on Stockus he stands to win thousands of dollars without the requirement of a large investment upfront. Our approach is light years apart from the business model of a traditional broker in the sense that it aims to protect the trader without limiting their gains. Traders are now faced with the choice of trading on the market with a high degree of risk or playing Stockus with limited risk whilst maintaining their earning potential. This is a new opportunity to trader and we believe that they will chose in our favour. Equal odds of winning The probability of winning in a fully subscribed Stockus tournament is approximately 3-3.5% which is roughly equal to the chances of turning a profit whilst trading on the Forex market. However $10 gets you nowhere on a forex brokerage account, whereas in Stockus you can enter a trading competition and stand to win tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars with the same amount. The benefit of Stockus is that each player has a limited loss, but gets an equal chance to win large prizes. Fantasy trading – the Stockus platform is designed to be a direct competitor to traditional brokers by attracting a large number of participants. There is no sense in funding a leverage forex account and risking the entire deposit when the trader can enter a tournament and win fantastic amounts of prize money in a variety of competitions. The development of trading skills and ability to collect large gains solely with the merit of experience and knowledge is the main advantage of Stockus. Millions of players with the ambition, aptitude and skill will be able to compete for the large cash rewards with limited downside. In the past such individuals were faced with a choice between financial markets or betting games. Now, such players have an innovative alternative in the form of Stockus. How to become a millionaire Stockus is a financial simulator based on a social media platform which allows any player to participate in a tournament of their choice. If a certain trader prefers a short-term, high frequency game, they can join a daily tournament with large prizes. If, on the other hand, the player is more partial to a long term, trend-based approach, the weekly or monthly tournament is more suited to this style and the prizes can reach astronomical levels. It is crucial to note that the size of the prize is not restricted, which means that the more players buy into the competition, the higher the winning pot. The payouts for larger tournaments can potentially reach six figures or more. The game consists of the following: Professional tournaments which will constantly increase in number. A small buy-in amount is paid to enter the tournament and compete against other traders. The winners immediately receive a payout to their account balance. Friendly tournaments which allow anyone to participate free of charge. The main purpose of these trading challenges is to educate new players and allow existing users to refine their strategies in preparation for the professional games. Decentralised challenges which users can host independently by selecting their competitors and forming a private league. Team tournaments allow players to team up with other traders and compete against each other in groups throughout several rounds. Players or teams who lose their initial capital have the option to buy back in and continue trading. As opposed to leveraged trading, where each loss is a direct hit to the capital and savings of the trader, Stockus allows players to continue trading for as long as they wish. Players have the ability to improve their chances by purchasing leverage, analytical tools and other extras for additional payments. Members of the Stockus community can exchange feedback, tips and trade ideas with each other. A referral program encourages players to invite their friends. The main attraction for most traders will be the professional tournaments. During the development of our tournament system, the team drew a lot of inspiration from the structure of the competitions held by the fantasy trading platform FanDuel. The capitalisation of FanDuel as an organisation is in the billions, and the platform’s phenomenal success along with hundreds of thousands of members testifies to the scalability and potential of such a model when applied in a different area. The Principles of Platform Monetisation Stockus aims to monetise fantasy trading by applying a small commission on each buy-in as well as charging additional fees for bonus features such as refunding, leverage, analytics, etc. Each player can purchase extras in order to improve their chances of winning and gain an edge over their competition. Additional initiatives such as referral programmes and promotions allow players to help others and earn additional tokens for their efforts. Testing the game Stockus utilises a unique trading platform which our team modelled around the popular MT4 trading software. This proprietary platform allows players to trade stocks, futures, currency pairs and options in real time on a broad selection of global venues. The Stockus model was throughout several beta rounds hosted on the Facebook developer platform in order to enhance the software and improve functionality. This testing base also allowed us to confirm the viability of the concept and saleability of the offering. This period allowed us to gather valuable data on user preferences, as well as collect feedback and verify the validity of the game concept. Users actively participated in the trading tournaments and purchased additional features in order to boost their chances of earnings a prize. We saw a healthy amount of competition for the prize spots, with many players repurchasing funds or unlocking leverage to get the upper hand on their rival traders. Our developers also expanded the capabilities of the platform during this time, adding several different tournament types as well as options trading during the testing phase. We have now developed a completed version of the game based on the results of these extensive tests, which we are excited to bring to your attention. Blockchain as a foundation for trust Stockus is innovating by allowing all types of traders to compete in tournaments with limited risk and on equal terms. Ethereum allows us to create smart contracts which automatically determine and verify the outcome of each trading tournament, as well as paying out the rewards to the winners. The principles of crypto can be used to process and distribute the gains from the various tournaments in an efficient and transparent manner. This solution is optimal due to its security and scalability as the number of players and competitions grows. Unlike a typical brokerageplatform, the entire infrastructure of Stockus is built on blockchain, making the setup robust and secure. One of the toughest challenges we faced during the beta testing phase was gaining the trust of the players. Some users raised concerns regarding the authenticity of the tournament results and likelihood of an actual payout. The blockchain addresses such concerns and puts any doubts to rest due to the transparent and objective manner in which the smart contracts will determine winners as well as the final payout of the prizes. This transparency creates an element of trust amongst users and enhances the eligibility of the tournament series. A second challenge addressed by the blockchain infrastructure is raising the required funds and launching the game within a period of 3months. An ICO offers a priceless opportunity to meet our targets and achieve the ultimate objective of building a trading simulator which will offer an innovative and groundbreaking alternative to the traditional forex trading approach. A third argument in favour of an ICO and the blockchain solution is the ability to issue our own tokens, which will essentially act as a cryptocurrency derivative within our game. These tokens will have a value versus Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies which is directly dependent on the popularity and success of the game. Should the demand for ingame services and tournaments continue to increase as we expect, so will the value of the tokens in relation to other currencies. Stockus Tokens Stockus tokens are an integral component of the Stockus economy and ecosystem. Owners of these tockens will have access to the following services: - Participation in trading tournaments - Act as witnesses and judges in the trading tournaments - Receive rewards and prizes in the competitions, promotions and tournaments - Purchase additional services and bonus features - Hosting tournaments - Receive referral rewards for inviting friends The tokens play a key role in the economic processes at play in the Stockus environment. These tokens can be purchased in the application, received from other players, won in a tournament, or as a reward for acting as witness or judge in determining the results of a competition. Additional tokens can also be received as a reward for inviting friends to play. Tokens can also be acquired through the preliminary offering of Stockus tokens via Ether (ENT). The Stockus interface will also integrate third party trading solutions such as Shapershift and Coinbase for those users who do not already hold ENT. The initial offering of Stockus tokens will take place in the form of a preliminary ICO. Anyone can subscribe to the offering in exchange for ENT or other cryptocurrencies such as BTC or STEEM. We plan to offer 5,000,000 of our tokens at a rate of 300 tokens for 1 ENT. Tournament Result Verification The decentralised tournament verification system is an elegant and robust solution for all users as it prevents any manipulation or abuse of the competition results. All token holders will be able to act as witnesses or judges when determining the winners of each tournament, allowing the public to verify the results via open ledger technology. Should a single participant disagree with the results, an independent confirmation of the tournament results is established by the witnesses. If the conclusion regarding the winners of a tournament is unanimous and there are no disagreements between participants, no added verification via witness is required and the system automatically processes a payout. Stockus ICO and Development plans The bulk of raised capital will be directed at the following: - Development of 2 professional tournaments: the WFT (Weekly Fantasy Tournament) and DFT (Daily Fantasy Tournament). These will be completed in 3 months. - A promotional campaign which will ensure that the userbase reaches critical mass and the project becomes sustainable by increasing the prize amounts in the WFT to the order of tens of thousands. - The development of a social network within Stockus, which would allow players to exchange opinions, experiences and advice, as well as form trading societies and teams. - The development of a mobile version of the trading application. - Development and production of at least one new trading competition every 2 months. The game should have at least 6 different tournament types by the end of the first year. The Stockus development team is pleased to present our project for your review and assessment. We hope the summary has made a positive impression and look forward to your support and feedback. Thank you in advance for your time and attention. Stockus Developers tl;dr New blockchain platform allowing fantasy trading, limited capital at risk for the chance to make substantial amounts of money. Project currently under development, ICO later in the year, feel free to ask any questions! Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/StockusProject/ Website: www.stockus.io Twitter: https://twitter.com/stockusproject
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